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WS 1: Climate change-related migration
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 Climate change and environmental degradation are reshaping migration and displacement, and are expected to do so even more prominently in the future. The Worldbank finds that climate change could force 216 million people across six world regions to move within their countries by 2050. Disasters such as hurricanes and floods (sudden onset) can directly cause displacement, while trends such as sea level rise and coastal erosion (slow onset) have more gradual effects, but still contribute to transform migration and displacement. In turn, migration and displacement can also have impacts on climate change and the environment. Labour migration can, for example, help accelerate the green transition in destination countries. Remittances could also be leveraged to support adaptation plans. On the contrary, refugee camps can put serious pressure on natural resources in host countries.
Learning Journey: Considering the importance of the topic and potential for creating synergies, knowledge and learning, the SDC Networks Migration and Forced Displacement as well as Climate, DRR and Environment with the involvement of the concerned offices of the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA) are working on a structured Learning Journey on the topic. The learning journey serves to better understanding the complex link of climate change and migration. Several community of practice meetings allowed to build the capacity of its' members and create a thorough understanding of the phenomena, including by developping a factsheet and an overview of operational engagement. A brief overview can be found in "Findings and FAQ" and the documents can be downloaded here:  Factsheet
What is climate change-related migration? Climate change-related human mobility is a multi-causal phenomenon, and climate change is rarely the only reason why people move. The adverse impacts of climate change and environmental degradation can impact livelihoods, food and water security, health, and housing, which compounded with other factors may compel people to move. Environmental degradation and climate change interact with a wide range of other migration drivers (such as political, demographic, economic and social factors, local conflicts, discrimination, situations of vulnerability and marginalization) and the degree to which the decision to migrate is voluntary and attainable (through access to legal pathways, access to sufficient resources to move) and in the face of gradual shifts in the climate, some people may choose to migrate as a way of adapting.
Extreme weather events could force people to move within their own country or flee across borders, while others who feel the need and desire to migrate but do not have the possibility to do so can become ‘trapped’ in vulnerable areas. More frequent and severe extreme-weather events increase displacement, while slow-onset trends such as sea level rise and coastal erosion disrupt habitats and contribute to migratory movements. On the one hand, migration can be part of a risk reduction strategy and a necessary protection and coping mechanism, while on the other hand, it can be a strategy to diversify livelihoods, leverage remittances for adaptation and support the green transition.
The term “climate refugees” is prominent in the media and public debate, however the term has no legal significance, including within international refugee law. On the contrary, “climate change-related human mobility” functions as an umbrella term that refers to all aspects of movement of people by sudden or slow-onset events related to climate change. In the context of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), three types of climate change-related human mobility are differentiated: migration, displacement and planned relocation. There is no bright line distinguishing these forms of mobility, especially since migration can still be forced or voluntary, so the terminology commonly used is ‘climate change-related human mobility’ or sometimes just ‘climate mobility’ for short, used as an umbrella term to encompass all three forms of mobility.
How does climate change impact human mobility? While the exact extent of climate change impacts on migration remains a subject of debate, there is widespread consensus that climate change has already had – and will undoubtedly continue to have – adverse effects on socio-economic conditions and thus undermines individuals’ and societies’ capacity to manage or adapt to the risks of climate change. Specifically, resilience is reduced as livelihoods are compromised, with adverse impact on food, water and economic security. It is projected that in the near future, growing numbers of people are likely to be displaced or to decide to migrate or relocate as a response. What influences a human mobility decision? The factors influencing a migration decision are complex and climate change has an effect on multiple migration drivers at different levels. Climate change-related impacts, such as rising sea levels, changing rainfall patterns and increasing temperatures, intersect with existing challenges such as socio-economic, political, demographic and environmental issues, further aggravating existing vulnerabilities and pressures. In some cases, climate change impacts can also be the critical factor triggering the movement of people. For instance, rising sea levels are making low-lying coastal areas uninhabitable and can lead to a loss of territory, which makes moving inevitable. In the case of disaster-induced displacement, movement can be attributed to a particular event, such as a typhoon, as the primary trigger. In addition to being a catalyst for human mobility, climate change can also trap people, by undermining their livelihoods and destroying their assets. People already vulnerable due to existing economic, political and demographic conditions may be unable to migrate away from climate shocks and vulnerability due to insufficient financial means, the absence of support networks, social exclusion, limited political rights, conflict or geographic isolation. These ‘trapped populations’ become increasingly vulnerable, as climate change-related harms continue to undermine their livelihoods, housing conditions, as well as broader social cohesion (e.g., tensions around access to resources). Climate events disproportionately impact marginalized groups, who often live in less resilient infrastructure, work in climate-vulnerable livelihoods, or have fewer social and economic resources to adapt and prepare. But these potentially vulnerable groups are often less likely to move. For instance, women may be less likely to evacuate before a cyclone (e.g., because of social norms against going to mixed-gender evacuation centres). Women and children may be left behind in rural villages while men move to cities as agricultural livelihoods weaken, leaving them vulnerable to security risks or forced to take up unsafe livelihoods. While vulnerable groups may be ‘involuntarily immobile,’ or unable to leave despite wanting to, frontline communities may also choose to stay despite adverse impacts of climate change. These ‘voluntarily immobile’ people often have spiritual, familial, or religious ties to their communities of origin. For instance, coastal communities in low-lying atoll states in the Pacific frequently object to calls for them to move, instead wanting more support to adapt in place. Thus, the goal becomes empowering communities impacted by climate change to have the resources and capabilities to either chose to move or to stay.
Can we predict how many people will move in the future? There are important caveats to the evidence and modelling of climate change-related human mobility. Although estimates produced over the past decade are far more reliable than before, they typically focus on internal rather than international migration; cannot distinguish between those who move because of climate change and those who move for other reasons; and focus on the global or regional, rather than national or local levels. Thus, there are thoroughly debunked but nonetheless widely circulating estimates of 1.2 billion people moving in the context of climate change by 2050. Instead, while slow-onset climate events are likely to foster more mobility, the volume of movement is hard to predict (e.g., sea level rise may give people more time to adapt in place or to find regular, well-planned ways to move). It is particularly difficult to model international migration, since the deciding factor will likely be migration and border policies and how governments choose to manage and respond to climate change-related human mobility, which cannot be captured by scientific projections. Most climate-induced human mobility has until now mainly taken place within national borders and it is likely that this will continue to be the case in the near future. The Groundswell Report anticipates that without ambitious global and national action to reduce greenhouse gases and to mitigate the effects of climate change, sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America could see more than 140 million people migrating within the borders of their countries by 2050. The majority of internal migration is temporary, and it is likely that people will return to their homes as soon as possible, as is often the case after extreme weather events and natural disasters.
Can migration be a successful coping / adaptive strategy? Migration is often assumed to represent a failure to adapt to a changing environment whereas it can actually be a strategy to cope with climate change. For centuries, people have engaged in long-term and short-term migration as an adaptive response to climactic stress. For example, the livelihoods of nomadic pastoralist societies have always included mobility as a tool to deal with climactic variability. Migration should not always be seen as a last resort in the face of negative climate impacts: while much focus on climate change-related human mobility is on forced displacement, mobility can also be a tool to strengthen resilience to climate change. Concretely, migration can reduce vulnerabilities and offer a risk reduction and coping mechanism to avoid and minimize adverse climate impacts. It can be a strategy for households to diversify their livelihoods, as well as to create opportunities for remittance sending, which can serve as a key financial lifeline for those who stayed behind, allowing them to invest in climate adaptation and resilience and empowering them to remain in place if they wish. Migration can also reduce peoples’ exposure to climate change, helping them move to safer destinations, thus relieving pressures on climate-vulnerable communities of origin (and if well-managed, also meet development and climate action needs in communities of destination). The key, as acknowledged in the 6th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report, is to ensure this migration is safe and adaptive, rather than forced.
Which international processes and initiatives address climate change-related human mobility? The connection between climate change and mobility is a rapidly growing policy priority. For instance, climate mobility is the focus of the 2023/4 Global Forum on Migration and Development and is increasingly featured in the annual Conference of Parties (COPs) of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (see Box 1). A range of international actors now also work on climate change-related human mobility, and several countries have joined the state-led Platform on Disaster Displacement (PDD, successor to the Nansen Initiative) to advance a toolkit to respond to situations where people are displaced across borders in the context of disasters and climate change. There is no single forum focused on climate change-related mobility—and such a forum is unlikely to emerge since these issues are so cross-cutting—meaning international dialogue on this issue is integrated across a range of climate change and migration processes. Still, there is growing momentum within international forums to address the issue. Box 1: A Timeline of Climate Change-related Human Mobility in the Global Processes and Agreements Climate change-related human mobility emerged on the policy agenda over the course of a decade:
December 2010 – UNFCCC Cancun Adaptation Framework: Called on countries to take “measures to enhance understanding, coordination and cooperation with regard to climate induced displacement, migration, and planned relocation.” October 2012 – Launch of the Nansen Initiative: Aimed to build consensus among States on key principles and elements to protect people displaced across borders in the context of disasters caused by natural hazards, including those linked to climate change. March 2015 – Adoption of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction: Outlined “targets and priorities for action to prevent and reduce disaster risks,” including those linked to displacement. October 2015 – Endorsement of Nansen Initiative Agenda for the Protection of Cross-Border Displaced Persons in the Context of Disasters and Climate Change: Presents “a comprehensive approach to disaster displacement that primarily focuses on protecting cross-border disaster-displaced persons [...] [and introduces] measures to manage disaster displacement risks in the country of origin.” December 2015 – Establishment of the UNFCCC Task Force on Displacement, COP21: Within the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage, the TFD aims to develop recommendations for integrated approaches to avert, minimize and address displacement related to the adverse impacts of climate change. March 2016 – Launch of the Platform on Disaster Displacement: Successor to the Nansen Initiative, brings together states committed to supporting the implementation of the Protection Agenda. December 2018 – UNFCCC decision adopts recommendations of Task Force on Displacement, COP 24: Adoption of a set of recommendations to, among others, “facilitate orderly, safe, regular and responsible migration and mobility [. . .] in the context of climate change.” December 2018 – Adoption of Global Compact Migration: Recognizes the need to “[s]trengthen joint analysis and sharing of information to better map, understand, predict, and address migrations, such as those that may result from sudden-onset and slow-onset natural disasters, the adverse effects of climate change, environmental degradation, as well as other precarious situations.” February 2022 – IPCC 6th Assessment Report reaches conclusions on migration and displacements: Recognizes that climate hazards act as direct and indirect drivers of migration and displacement, and that “properly supported and where levels of agency and assets are high, migration as an adaptation to climate change can reduce exposure and socioeconomic vulnerability.” November 2023 – UNFCCC Operationalization of the New Funding Arrangements, including a Fund, for Responding to Loss and Damage, COP28: Decides to operationalise new funding arrangements for developing countries particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change that cover challenges such as “displacement, relocation, migration.”
Where can I get further information? See the following key publications and websites for further reading: • The Atlas of Environmental Migration • Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration • Foresight Report: Migration and Global Environmental Change • Migration Policy Institute, “Climate Migration 101: An Explainer,” 2023. • Environmental Migration Portal • Mixed Migration Center Research • Migration Policy Institute’s podcast Changing Climate, Changing Migration Links to other resources: • IPCC, including its’ progress reports: https://www.ipcc.ch/ • Warsaw Taskforce on Disaster Displacement: https://unfccc.int/process/bodies/constituted-bodies/WIMExCom/TFD • Internal Displacement Monitoring Center: https://www.internal-displacement.org/ • UNHCR: https://www.unhcr.org/what-we-do/build-better-futures/climate-change-and-displacement • IOM: : https://www.iom.int/migration-environment-and-climate-change • PDD: https://disasterdisplacement.org/ Other Reports and articles: • Migration Policy Institute, “Efforts to Manage Climate Migration Are Slowly Growing, but Their Focus is Often Indirect,” 2023. • International Labour Organization, “Human mobility and labour migration related to climate change in a just transition towards environmentally sustainable economies and societies for all” • OHCHR and the Platform for Disaster Displacement, “Slow onset effects of climate change and human rights protection for cross-border migrants,” 2018 • Special rapporteur on the human rights of migrants, “The Impact of climate change on the human rights of migrants,” 2022. • Center for Global Development, “Climate Change and Migration: An Omnibus Overview for Policymakers and Development Practitioners,” 2023
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